McJobs are the future?

Jordan Weissman of the Atlantic has an article up wherein he makes the following case:

"McJobs Are Probably the Future

During the recession, the economy shed millions of middle-income jobs in fields like construction and manufacturing. During the recovery, they've mostly been replaced with low-wage service work, exacerbating a trend that dates back to the turn of the century [...] the food services industry now accounts for 7.6 percent of all jobs, up from about 7 percent pre-recession, and about 6.2 percent around 2000. And, in all likelihood, they'll account for even more in the future. The BLS projects that food services will be among the fastest growing source of jobs for Americans with no more than a high school degree -- right behind retail and home health aides. So maybe working at McDonalds doesn't usually amount to a career today. But it might tomorrow."

The article deals with the issues attached to low wage service jobs and some popular conceptions regarding them (a recommended read), but this bullet stood out to me particularly.   This was mostly due to the fact that I question his assertion and partially because of how if he is correct, what does that mean for the future?  

I specifically question whether or not the number of food service jobs is really steadily increasing since 2000, or is it that its numbers have not decreased to the degree other industries has during that period.

The numbers he cites indicate that there has been almost 25% growth in jobs over the last 13 years in the food service industry.  While there has been an increase in food service businesses, its hard to believe the total number of business has increased that  much.  Additionally, that kind of expansion would have seen wages increase as demand draws employees from other, higher paying sectors.  

An alternative (and I think correct view) is that food service employment as an absolute number remained steady over time but other industries dropped dramatically. These sectors, such as construction, often employ high school educated workers, the same workers who work in the food service industry. This steady strength in food service would cause any expansion in this industry to draw employees from the collapsing sectors, which would explain the continuance of low pay in the face of any increase in demand.

What is the take away?  The take away is that Mcjobs may or may not be a career path in the future, but if we would like these jobs to pay better we need to create greater demand in other industries for the same types of workers.  Demand ultimately drives pay, and Mcjobs get away with such low pay due to underwhelming demand for these workers from other sectors. 

 

This article available online at:

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/07/mcjobs-are-the-future-why-you-should-care-what-fast-food-workers-earn/277863/ 

Posted in: Atlantic,McJobs,Stats